John McCain's campaign is now confirming that his running mate will be Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, according to practically every news organization covering the campaign.

Surprised? I am. I hadn't seen her name, even among the long-shots, until Thursday. And if you were reading this blog, you know that I thought he'd pick Mitt Romney.

If Barack Obama's acceptance speech was attacking from a defensive position, then the apt military metaphor here may be a surprise counterattack.

By making his announcement on the day after the Democratic convention ended, and by having the discipline to keep Palin's name secret until the last minute, the McCain camp may have softened up Obama's bounce by cutting into morning-after coverage on TV. And morning TV news is fast supplanting the evening variety for viewership and influence on the national conversation.

He also targeted a potential weakness for Obama. Picking Palin may not convince a flood of Democratic and independent women to vote for McCain, but it certainly will remind them that Hillary Clinton isn't on the Democratic ticket. We'll have a letter to the editor in Saturday's paper from a woman calling for write-in votes for Hillary. And reporters at the convention didn't have much trouble finding angry Clinton supporters, even in the minutes after her speech on Tuesday.

But in the longer term, McCain's choice may be a risky gambit.

He'll have a tougher time questioning Obama's experience. Palin is in just her second year as governor of a state with a small population, and five years ago she was mayor of Wasilla, a city with fewer than 6,000 residents. Those aren't great credentials for becoming commander in chief, and with McCain turning 72 today, his age will continue to be an issue for the Democrats.

Palin has built a reputation for integrity but by telling that story, she'll draw attention to the ongoing political corruption scandal in Alaska, which may serve as a reminder of the Jack Abramoff scandal that did so much damage to Republicans in Washington.

McCain likes to surprise people, and he certainly did here. It will be fascinating to see how this changes the dynamics of both campaigns in the coming weeks.

What do you think?

-- Jim Sweeney

Last month, I wrote an editorial ("Paying less") supporting a bill in Sacramento that would allow auto insurance companies to offer pay-as-you-go insurance to drivers willing to verify their mileage. The policies, already available in 34 other states, offer people a chance to pay less if they drive less - and prove it.

On Wednesday, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner proposed new regulations that would allow insurers to offer pay-as-you-go plans in California.

Poizner, a possible Republican candidate for governor in 2010, was applauded by both insurers and consumer groups. In the Legislature, pay-as-you-go is sponsored by Assemblyman Jared Huffman, D-San Rafael. His bill has cleared the Assembly and is awaiting action on the Senate floor. A spokesman said Huffman has been working with Poizner, is comfortable with the proposed regulations and doesn't plan to bring his bill up for a vote.

A study by the Brookings Institution estimated that two-thirds of households would benefit from pay-as-you-go auto insurance, saving an average of $270 a year and reducing miles driven by 8 percent. Huffman has emphasized the environmental benefits of getting people to drive less.

However, some people have expressed privacy reservations about verifying their mileage, saying the records could be subpoenaed in a divorce or other lawsuit.

A Los Angeles Times account of Poizner's news conference said drivers could report their annual mileage in three ways: They could have their vehicle odometer checked by an insurance company representative; they could submit maintenance records; or they could have an electronic device installed in their cars that would transmit information to insurers.
The monitoring systems would track miles driven but not how or where someone drives as occurs in other states and countries that have pay-as-you-drive insurance, Poizner said.

Would you watch your miles - and give proof to your insurer - in return for a break on your auto insurance premiums? I would.

-- Jim Sweeney